968,495 views since Nov 26, 2023

Joe Biden has seen a sharp drop in his approval rating over the past three weeks, allowing Donald Trump to gain ground in the polls in several swing states. But is it enough to put him ahead in the Electoral College? Here's my 2024 election map prediction for all 50 states, based on current polls.

This 2024 Electoral College map prediction was made using polls conducted prior to November 14, 2023.

0:00 Intro
0:12 Safe Biden States
0:28 Safe Trump States
0:56 New Mexico
1:20 Maine
1:57 Colorado
2:13 Minnesota
2:35 New Hampshire
3:07 Alaska
3:17 RFK Jr's Impact In 2024
3:51 Iowa
4:12 Ohio
4:44 Texas
5:39 Florida
7:09 Virginia
8:10 Nebraska CD-2
8:43 Maine CD-2
9:03 Georgia
10:04 North Carolina
10:37 Nevada
11:23 Arizona
12:32 Wisconsin
13:13 Michigan
14:18 Pennsylvania
14:54 Polling Shift Over Past 2 Months

RATINGS
Tilt: Polling lead of less than 2%
Lean: Polling lead of 2–5%
Likely: Polling lead of 5–10%
Safe: Polling lead of greater than 10%

All polls sourced from: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...

When a poll surveyed both likely voters and registered voters, likely voter samples were used in averages.

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